In a recent report. the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) is signaling a brighter outlook for the U.S. housing market in 2026, and that shift carries meaningful implications not only for traditional single-family homes but I think, also for the manufactured housing sector.
After several years of relative stagnation, NAR’s chief economists are now forecasting a measurable rebound in 2026, pointing to rising home sales, slightly lower mortgage rates, and modest price increases as key drivers of renewed buyer activity.
A Rebound in Traditional Housing Activity
At the heart of NAR’s optimism is a prediction that existing-home sales will rise by around 14% in 2026. This follows several years where sales movements were largely flat or below long-term historical averages. NAR’s forecast suggests that stronger job growth (in spite of current 2025 data), easing borrowing costs, and increasing inventory of homes for sale will help unlock pent-up buyer demand heading into next year.
Mortgage rates are expected to moderate from highs seen in recent years, trending toward an average near 6% (right now between 6.2-6.3%) which could help improve affordability for many prospective buyers. This shift, while modest, is significant after extended periods of higher borrowing costs. The stability will suggest to buyers that rates may not go lower any time soon.
Meanwhile, NAR expects the median home price to only rise by about 4% in 2026, a pace that reflects continued demand but not the kind of overheating that many feared in earlier years.
More Buyers, More Opportunities
Part of NAR’s analysis includes identifying markets that are likely to outperform in 2026, reflecting differences in economic conditions, demographic shifts, and housing stock relative to local incomes. Hot spots highlighted cities such as Charleston, Charlotte, Columbus, and Salt Lake City, areas that combine job growth, household income gains, and a housing supply that better aligns with buyer budgets.
Lower mortgage rates, while slight, can expand the pool of qualified buyers. NAR economists note that if rates do trend downward as forecast, an estimated more than 5 million additional households could become mortgage-eligible in 2026, potentially helping to bring stability, increase confidence and get buyers off the sidelines.
What This Means for Manufactured Housing
While much of NAR’s forecast focuses on traditional existing-home and new-home markets, manufactured housing stands to benefit from many of the same forces:
1. Improved Affordability and Buyer Eligibility
One of the biggest barriers in recent years has been elevated home and borrowing costs. As mortgage rates ease toward 6%, the total cost of monthly payments for all types of homes becomes more attractive. Manufactured housing buyers, particularly first-time buyers and those with tighter budgets, may find this shift significantly expands their purchasing power.
2. Increased Buyer Movement and Demand
A broader rebound in housing activity tends to elevate interest in all affordable housing options. Manufactured homes, which are already among the most cost-effective paths to ownership, can become a more visible and viable solution for buyers priced out of traditional site-built markets.
3. Rising Inventory Trends
NAR’s forecast highlights that rising inventory is key to improving affordability. Manufactured housing, with shorter build cycles and expanding factory capacity, is well positioned to help fill gaps in available housing stock, especially in markets where site-built inventory remains limited.
4. Complementary to Broader Market Growth
As job gains and economic stability continue, homebuyers are more likely to act. With a projected 14% increase in overall sales activity, the ripple effects of heightened market confidence can translate into more manufactured home sales, particularly in regions where housing affordability is tight (which is everywhere today).
A Balanced, Sustainable Outlook
NAR’s 2026 forecast does not signal a market boom akin to past cycles, but rather a sustainable rebound: more sales, modest price growth, and broader participation across buyer groups including millennials and first-time purchasers.
For manufactured housing professionals, this outlook suggests opportunities to capture a greater share of an expanding buyer base, especially those seeking more affordable, flexible housing options than traditional paths offer.
As housing markets continue shifting toward greater accessibility and demand stabilizes, manufactured homes, with their cost advantages and growing financing options, are poised to play an increasingly important role in meeting housing needs in 2026 and beyond. You decide if it is time to double down.